投资 思想

原典

Benjamin Graham (1894-1976), "价值投资之父", Buffett 的导师。

"Margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid. It will be large at one price, small at some higher price, nonexistent at some still higher price." — Graham,《聪明的投资者》, 1949

中文译: "安全边际永远取决于你付的价。同样资产, 低价时安全边际大, 高价时小, 再高就根本没有。"

"Investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike." — Graham

中文译: "投资最聪明的时候, 是最像在做生意的时候。"

第二句话点破核心 — 投资不是赌博, 不是预测股价, 是买入企业部分所有权。买企业的逻辑天然包含: 看价值 / 看回报率 / 看现金流 / 看竞争壁垒 / 留容错空间。

原典

Charlie Munger (1924-2023), Buffett 的合伙人。

"The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." — Munger

中文译: "复利第一规则: 不要无谓地中断它。"

"Show me where I'm going to die, so I won't go there." — Munger

中文译: "告诉我我会死在哪儿, 我就不去那儿。"

第一句是复利核心 — 你不需要"很聪明", 你需要"不犯大错"。一次 -50% 摧毁 7 年复利, 一次 -80% 摧毁 22 年。所以 Munger 把投资简化为: 列出所有让你大亏的方式, 然后避开它们。

Warren Buffett 补充:

"Our favorite holding period is forever." — Buffett

中文译: "我们最喜欢的持有期是永远。"

这句话表面是个段子, 实际是复利数学的必然推论 — 你越早卖, n 越小, 终值越低。

原典

Ray Dalio (1949-), Bridgewater Associates 创始人, 全球最大对冲基金 (1500 亿 AUM 高峰)。

"Diversification is the Holy Grail of investing." — Dalio, 2018《Principles》

中文译: "分散化是投资的圣杯。"

"The future is unknowable. Build a portfolio that doesn't depend on knowing it." — Dalio

中文译: "未来不可知。构造一个不依赖预测的组合。"

第二句话是全天候的核心哲学: 承认自己预测不准, 然后用结构对冲这个不确定性。这跟"主动判断" 反方向 — 不是用更聪明的预测, 是用更聪明的架构。

原典

George Soros (1930-), 匈牙利裔美国对冲基金大佬, Quantum Fund 创始人。

"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected." — Soros

中文译: "市场永远处于不确定和流变中, 钱是靠对显而易见的打折 + 押注意外赚的。"

"I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong." — Soros

中文译: "我之所以富有, 是因为我知道自己什么时候错了。"

第二句点出反身性投资者的核心素质: 不是预测准, 是迅速止损。反身性意味着你经常错 — 关键是错了能立刻停, 对了能压重。

原典

Eugene Fama (1939-), 芝加哥大学经济学家, 2013 诺奖, "有效市场假说"(EMH) 创立者。

"The market gets the price right." — Fama, 1970 EMH 论文

中文译: "市场会给出正确价格。"

但他的因子模型又承认 — 存在系统性偏离的因子, 因子收益 = 风险补偿。所以 Fama 的立场是: 市场总体有效, 但存在风险溢价的截面差异。

"There is no such thing as alpha. What looks like alpha is loading on factors." — Fama

中文译: "不存在 alpha 这种东西。看起来像 alpha 的, 其实是因子暴露。"

这句话直接否定了主动管理 — 你跑赢市场不是因为你聪明, 是因为你正好暴露在某些因子上(可能你自己都没意识到)。

原典

Ray Dalio, 见 INV-03。

"Cause-effect relationships are the building blocks of reality." — Dalio,《Principles》

中文译: "因果关系是现实的基本积木。"

"The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist." — Dalio

中文译: "投资者最大的错误是相信最近发生的事会持续。"

第二句直接戳穿"近因偏误" — 大部分人看 2010-2020 的低通胀 / 低利率 / 长牛市, 假设这是常态。Dalio 的周期机器告诉你: 这是长期债务周期的中段, 不是常态。

原典

Jeff Bezos (1964-): 1994 创立 Amazon (车库, 卖书), 2021-07 卸任 CEO 转任董事长。 2025 净资产 $230B+ (Forbes), 全球第二富。 同时拥有 Blue Origin (商业航天) / Washington Post / 多个早期 AI 投资 (Anthropic 大股东之一)。

原文金句 (1997 第一封股东信, 每年附在新股东信里 reprint):

"It's all about the long term. We will make bold rather than timid investment decisions where we see a sufficient probability of gaining market leadership advantages. Some of these investments will pay off, others will not, and we will have learned another valuable lesson in either case."

Day 1 名言 (2016 股东信):

"Q: What does Day 2 look like? A: Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1."

决策原则 (2015 股东信):

"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you're probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions."

原典

Naval Ravikant (1974-, 印度裔美国, 早期在德里贫困区长大, 9 岁移民): AngelList 创始人 + 投资人 + 哲学家。 Twitter 上 100 万+ 粉丝, 但极少营销, 多数靠口碑传播。 同时长期推 Vipassana 冥想 + 长期主义 + 比特币。

原文金句 (How to Get Rich Twitter 长贴, 2018-06-03):

"Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy."

Specific Knowledge 定义:

"Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather than whatever is hot right now. Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others."

Leverage 的本质:

"Code and media are permissionless leverage. They're the leverage behind the newly rich. You can create software and media that works for you while you sleep."

完整 Almanack PDF 网上免费 — navalmanack.com (Eric Jorgenson 编辑, Naval 同意公开)。

原典

Charlie Munger (1924-2023, 享年 99): 律师出身 → 投资者 → Berkshire Hathaway 副主席 (1978-2023)。 Buffett 公开称他 "最重要的合作伙伴 + 我能找到的最聪明的人"。 跟 Buffett 56 年合作, 改变了 Buffett 从烟蒂股(便宜)到伟大公司合理价。

原文金句 (1994 USC 演讲):

"The first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang them back. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form."

反向思考:

"Invert, always invert. Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward."

Lollapalooza Effect:

"The most important thing to keep in mind is the idea that especially big forces often come out of these one-hundred psychological tendencies operating jointly." — 跟正常认知不同, 多数大事件是多偏差叠加而非单一原因。

Poor Charlie's Almanack (2005, Peter Kaufman 编辑) — Munger 一生演讲 + 文章合集, 投资圈圣经之一。

原典

Warren Buffett (1930-): Berkshire Hathaway CEO + Chairman (1965-)。 2024 净资产 $135B+。 1956-1969 个人合伙基金年化 29.5% (vs Dow 7.4%)。 1965-2024 Berkshire BVPS 复合增长 19.8% (vs S&P 10%)。 全球公认最伟大投资者。

原文金句 (1989 年报):

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." — 从 Graham 烟蒂转向 Munger 伟大公司的关键论断。

Owner Earnings 定义 (1986 年报):

"If we think through these questions, we can gain some insights about what may be called 'owner earnings.' These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges... less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc."

护城河:

"In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable moats."

最重要规则:

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." — 配合 Margin of Safety, 不是不亏是避免永久损失资本。